Gold remains a reliable asset
The market of precious metals after the New Year surprises with its diversity. The search for fallback options for traders and investors leads to a natural increase in gold and silver quotes. Palladium and platinum remain outsiders amid the threat of US default. But interest in reliable assets does not exclude the possibility of correction in the near future.
On January 16, gold on the exchanges rose significantly after analysts at Credit Suisse Group and Danske Bank published their forecasts for 2013 and 2014. According to the Securities Market, the February Comex gold futures on the Comex NYSE rose $ 8, or 0.46%, to $ 1,677.10 a troy ounce.
Expert Christine Tuxen (Danske Bank) believes that the average price of gold this year will be $ 1,720 per ounce, but will drop to $ 1,600 in 2014. According to Tom Kendall (Tom Kendall) of the office of Credit Suisse in London, which leads the publication, we can expect a price of $ 1740 per ounce and $ 1720, respectively. The general opinion of foreign and Russian experts is that the average price of gold will reach record highs in 2013 due to the large volume of stimulation in various economies of the world, Prime emphasizes. So of all the precious metals, the position of gold looks the most confident.
You can’t say the same about palladium and platinum – having reached three- and ten-month highs last week, respectively, the next day they became the leaders of the fall, following the weakening euro. Investkafe analyst Dmitry Demidenko noted that the distinctive feature of the beginning of the current year is the multidirectional movement of platinoids forming an upward trend, and other sector metals, the dynamics of which so far looked more like consolidation.
According to him, “in principle, there is nothing supernatural in enhancing the correlation between platinum and the single European currency: quotations of metal futures are sensitive to events taking place in this region due to a significant share of demand presented by its entities.
Two-thirds of global palladium consumption is accounted for by the production of autocatalysts. At the same time, according to the forecasts of the IHS research company, car sales in the USA will grow in 2013 to 14.9 million units compared to 14.3 million units expected in 2012. In China, similar figures are 20.5 million and 18.8 million, respectively.
More than 70% of global platinum demand in jewelry is in China. The growth in demand is due to the wide spread between platinum and gold quotes, which in April amounted to more than $ 200. The situation has now changed, which may lead to a reduction in the consumption of platinum jewelry.
Almost 60% of the demand for this precious metal in the production of catalysts for automobiles falls on Europe (about 40%) and Japan. After the last year’s not very successful for the auto industry in these regions, which was characterized by the development of the recession in the Eurozone and the deterioration of relations between the Land of the Rising Sun and the Celestial Empire due to territorial conflicts, the coming 2013 may bring a gradual recovery. ”
Demidenko stressed that platinum’s position is on the verge of default of the United States. It is in connection with the search for investors with the most reliable assets as an alternative to the dollar, the goals for platinum and palladium remain the same – $ 1750-1800 and $ 750 per ounce. At the same time, palladium can grow even higher, and the achievement of the platinum target will be facilitated by the successful overcoming of resistance, located at the level of $ 1730.
Thus, gold is the main market leader, and will remain so for at least a year. But in the future it is possible that in 2014 the growth rate of the metal may slow down. Prices for this precious metal have been rising for 12 consecutive years, but in 2012 the growth was minimal over the past four years, amounting to 7%. In any case, it now makes sense to consider it as a reliable asset, which investors do. And while there are no prerequisites for changing the situation.