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Currency forecast: the dollar strengthens its position

Currency forecast: the dollar strengthens its position
The dollar spent the whole week to strengthen its position and succeeded in this. The euro cannot boast of such achievements against the backdrop of Draghi’s statement that bearish risks for the eurozone remain. Concerns of monetary authorities about the prospects for the European economy are pulling the euro down, and this is expected to affect the situation as a whole.

The past week has clearly demonstrated that economic statistics from the United States has been and remains a fundamental factor for the market. According to Forex Club, America’s stock indices twice made serious attempts to move away from their multi-year highs, losing more than one percent during trading sessions. Yield on ten-year US bonds also fell by 0.07 percentage points to 1.95%.

Thus, a significant impetus to the growth of the dollar was given by the speech of the ECB President Mario Draghi, during which he was less optimistic in assessing the prospects for the eurozone economy. Closer to the close of the week, the USDX added 1.2%.

Forex Club analyst Valery Polkhovsky noted that “the EUR / USD pair has been corrected all week, and within a few hours after the start of the press conference, it lost about 200 basis points, having tested the support of 1.3380 for strength.” Accordingly, the euro / dollar correction, which began on February 6, had a logical continuation by the end of the week: the meeting of the European Central Bank ended with a neutral decision to keep the interest rate at 0.75% per annum, and ECB President Mario Draghi did not give the market a hint of future actions regulator.

According to Anna Bodrova, an expert at Investkafe, market participants on Friday weakly bought out the euro, but the main pair was trading inactive, at two-week lows.

“Over two trading days, the euro weakened against its American counterpart by 1.7%, which this year is the most impressive drop. Draghi repeats the template phrase over and over again that bearish risks for the eurozone persist, not explaining that it’s behind these heavy words. But in fact, they are hiding the fear of the monetary authorities about the prospects for the European economy. If the ECB had previously expected signs of its recovery by mid-2013, then now it is postponed until November-December, ” ritsya in Investkafe review.

The coming week is unlikely to bring anything fundamentally new – significant macroeconomic statistics that can affect the fundamental picture of the region’s economy were not published on Thursday-Friday, and in the period from February 11 to 15, information that could directly have a significant impact on the dollar USA, definitely not expected.

Although, in principle, data on retail sales, scheduled for release on Wednesday February 13 at 17.30 Moscow time, can provoke a large-scale reaction on stock exchanges and in this case can affect the dynamics of the dollar. “In general, investors are digesting the movements of the previous weeks on world financial markets and risk assets are being adjusted, which favorably affects the position of the“ American. “Nevertheless, the fundamental picture remains unfavorable for him.

The main event of the week for the European currency will be the results of auctions to place ten-year bonds of the Spanish government, which will be held on Friday, February 15. The situation on the debt capital market for this country was a little tense after the political scandal in which the current prime minister was involved. Significant growth in profitability may push the quotes of the EUR / USD pair. In general, the situation here is now very uncertain and the most logical is the side trend in the area of ​​1.3260-1.37 for the coming weeks, ”concludes the expert at Forex Club.

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